Headline inflation eased to 15.43 per cent in July, down from 15.91 per cent in June, extending a run of monthly declines that has taken the rate down from a peak above 34 per cent in 2024.

The direction is not in dispute. The pace is what divides economists from shoppers.

A falling inflation rate means prices are still rising, only more slowly. For a household that absorbed two years of compounding increases in rice, transport and rent, a slower rate of increase is not the same thing as relief, and the gap between those two readings is where most of the political argument now sits.

Behind the number

The easing has tracked a stronger naira, which has taken some pressure off imported food and inputs. The currency has gained around 8 per cent this year and is trading near N1,315 to the dollar, its firmest in two years.

Agriculture has also had a good run. The Central Bank's PMI put the sector at 53.4 in August, a 25th consecutive month of expansion.

Still far from target

At 15.43 per cent, inflation remains well outside the range the Central Bank would consider comfortable, which is why the Monetary Policy Committee has held the benchmark rate at 26.50 per cent through its last two meetings rather than begin easing.

The Federal Government has pointed to the trend as evidence its reforms are working. The opposition has pointed to market prices as evidence that they are not. Both are describing the same set of numbers.

Reporting by allAfrica. This summary was written by the TalkNaijaMedia desk.